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On Tuesday, December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) closed up +33 (+0.47%), while December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) dropped -22 (-0.45%), marking a 2.25-month low for London cocoa. This price activity comes as beneficial rains in the Ivory Coast support crop development, raising West Africa’s cocoa pod count to 7% above the five-year average. The Ivory Coast’s main harvest is projected to begin at the end of September.
Short covering in cocoa futures was noted after Nigeria reported a 22% year-over-year drop in July cocoa exports to 13,579 MT. Additionally, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in U.S. ports hit a 4.75-month low of 2,002,814 bags. Despite recent cocoa price pressures due to weak global demand and high prices impacting chocolate sales, the decline in Ivorian cocoa exports showed a 4.6% rise to 1.82 MMT this marketing year from October 1 to September 21, contributing to bullish sentiment.
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) reported a global cocoa deficit of -494,000 MT for 2023/24, a significant decline in production by 13.1% year-over-year to 4.38 MMT. As Ghana anticipates an 8.3% increase in its cocoa crop for 2025/26, projections for a global cocoa surplus in 2024/25 of 142,000 MT have been made, the first surplus in four years.
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