Cocoa prices are rising, with March ICE NY cocoa gaining 2.09% to $5,086 per metric ton and March ICE London cocoa up 1.84% to $3,697 per metric ton. This increase follows a smaller-than-expected decline in Asian cocoa grindings, which fell 4.8% year-on-year to 197,022 MT, compared to forecasts of a 12% decline. Conversely, North American cocoa grindings saw a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year to 103,117 MT, while European grindings dropped 8.3% to 304,470 MT, marking the lowest Q4 levels in 12 years.
The Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, reported a decrease in shipments to ports, totaling 1.13 MMT for the marketing year starting October 1, reflecting a 2.6% decrease from the previous year. Additionally, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to 494,000 MT, the largest in over 60 years, citing a production drop of 12.9% to 4.368 MMT.
Favorable conditions in West Africa are expected to boost cocoa pod counts, which are now reported to be 7% above the five-year average. However, Nigeria’s production is projected to decline by 11% for 2025/26 to 305,000 MT, highlighting tightening global cocoa supplies.
