On September 20, 2023, cocoa prices surged, with September ICE NY cocoa climbing 3.54% to close at +286 and September ICE London cocoa #7 rising 2.69% to +145. This increase is attributed to a shortage of cocoa powder as chocolate manufacturers scramble to secure supplies amid high cocoa bean prices, which are squeezing profit margins for cocoa processors.
Ghana’s Cocoa Board projected an 8.3% increase in the 2025/26 cocoa crop to 650,000 MT, while exports from Ivory Coast showed a modest growth of 6.2% compared to last year, reaching 1.71 MMT. However, reports indicate a decline in quality of the Ivory Coast’s mid-crop cocoa, with rejection rates of 5-6% due to adverse weather conditions, leading to estimates of 400,000 MT for this year, a 9% decrease from last year’s crop of 440,000 MT.
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has revised its global cocoa deficit for 2023/24 to 494,000 MT, marking the largest deficit in over 60 years, with production projected to drop by 13.1% to 4.380 MMT. Furthermore, cocoa grindings in North America, Europe, and Asia have all declined year-over-year, indicating growing consumer demand concerns influenced by rising cocoa prices and associated tariffs.
