On Thursday, September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) closed up 403 points (+6.66%), reaching a six-month high, while September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) increased by 312 points (+6.94%), hitting a 9.25-month high. This surge in cocoa prices follows Barry Callebaut AG’s report of a 5.7% increase in fiscal Q3 sales volumes, the first rise in over two years, signaling recovering demand.
Heavy rains in the Ivory Coast and Ghana have led to road flooding, restricting farmers’ access to farms and ports and endangering global cocoa supplies. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center has forecasted an El Niño event, potentially one of the strongest in 75 years, which could threaten West African cocoa yields. Moreover, the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop assessments predict a production drop of 18% to 1.8 million metric tons. In contrast, cocoa inventories on the ICE rose to a two-year high of 3,135,943 bags on Thursday, indicating a complex supply-demand landscape.
Despite the current price rally, North American and European cocoa grindings fell by 3.8% and 7.8% year-on-year, respectively, indicating weak global demand. Additionally, Nigeria’s cocoa production is expected to decline by 11% for 2025/26, providing some support for prices amidst larger global cocoa supplies, including a 20% year-on-year increase in shipments from the Ivory Coast.
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