On Monday, July ICE NY cocoa (CCN25) closed up 730 points (+8.63%), while July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN25) increased by 214 points (+3.69%). Cocoa prices surged as signs of slowing exports from Ivory Coast prompted short covering, with government data revealing Ivorian shipments totaling 1.679 million metric tons (MMT) from October 1 to June 22, a 6.9% increase from the previous year.
However, the export volume is down from a far larger increase recorded earlier in the year. Additionally, heavy rainfall in Ivory Coast is disrupting the mid-crop harvest and keeping farmers off their fields. Quality concerns have arisen, with approximate 5% to 6% of mid-crop cocoa being rejected due to poor quality, down from 1% in the main crop.
Consumer demand for cocoa products appears to be decreasing, with key chocolate manufacturers reporting declines in sales and anticipating costs from expected tariffs. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its global cocoa deficit for 2023/24 to 494,000 MT, the largest in over 60 years, while predicting a surplus of 142,000 MT in 2024/25.
