On Friday, July ICE NY cocoa (CCN26) closed up +29 (+0.77%) and July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26) rose +10 (+0.45%), marking a recovery from recent lows as traders engaged in short covering ahead of the long holiday weekend. Cocoa prices had previously fallen to 2.5-week lows due to an expected abundance in supply, particularly after the Ivory Coast revised its cocoa delivery estimate for the 2025/26 season to 2.2 million metric tons (MMT), up from 1.8-1.9 MMT.
Current cumulative data from the Ivory Coast indicates cocoa shipments have reached 1.61 MMT, a 1.9% increase compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, ICE cocoa inventories are at a 1.75-year high of 2,704,116 bags. Despite these bearish indicators, demand for chocolate remains relatively stable, supporting cocoa prices, while challenges such as drought conditions in West Africa persist.
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