On Monday, March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) closed up +147 (+3.50%), while March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) rose by +73 (+2.43%). This follows a recent decline where NY cocoa fell to a 2-year low and London cocoa hit a 2.25-year low due to concerns over demand.
As of January 25, 2026, Ivory Coast farmers shipped 1.20 million metric tons (MMT) of cocoa, down 3.2% from 1.24 MMT in the same period last year. Global cocoa stocks are estimated to rise by 4.2% year-on-year to 1.1 MMT, affecting prices. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) projected a global cocoa deficit of 494,000 MT for 2023/24, the largest in over 60 years, but expects a surplus of 49,000 MT for 2024/25.
Weak demand is evident, with Barry Callebaut AG reporting a 22% decline in sales volume in its cocoa division for the quarter ending November 30. European cocoa grindings fell by 8.3% year-on-year in Q4 2023, the lowest in 12 years.
