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On March 3, 2023, cocoa prices surged, with March ICE NY cocoa closing up +210 (+3.83%) and London cocoa #7 up +98 (+2.48%). This rally follows a revised forecast from the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) indicating a projected global cocoa surplus of only 49,000 metric tons for 2024/25, down from a previous estimate of 142,000 metric tons, and a reduction in global production from 4.84 million metric tons to 4.69 million metric tons.
Supporting these price increases, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in U.S. ports hit an 8.5-month low of 1,681,896 bags. Additionally, cocoa shipments from the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, totaling 718,451 metric tons from October 1 to November 30.
Despite the upward pressure on prices, global cocoa demand remains weak, with notable declines in chocolate sales reported during the Halloween season, which typically represents 18% of annual U.S. candy sales. The Cocoa Association of Asia reported a 17% year-on-year drop in cocoa grindings for Q3, the lowest level in nine years.
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