On Wednesday, December ICE NY cocoa closed up +234 (+3.07%), while September ICE London cocoa rose +82 (+1.53%). The increase in cocoa prices followed revised weather forecasts indicating reduced rainfall in the Ivory Coast for the upcoming week and tighter inventory levels, with ICE-monitored cocoa stocks in US ports falling to 2,177,187 bags, a three-month low.
Key factors impacting the market include concerns over the quality of mid-crop cocoa from the Ivory Coast and a slowdown in export rates, with reported shipments at 1.79 million metric tons (MMT) from October 1 to August 24, up 5.9% year-on-year but well below December’s increase of 35%. Additionally, Nigeria’s cocoa production is projected to decrease by 11% to 305,000 MT in the 2025/25 crop year.
Demand for cocoa products remains weak, as noted by a 7.2% decline in European cocoa grindings and a 16.3% drop in Asian grindings year-on-year. In contrast, Ghana is expected to increase its cocoa output by 8.3% to 650,000 MT in the 2025/26 season, contributing to global supply concerns.
