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Cocoa prices have surged significantly, with December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) rising by 6.67% to +410 and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) increasing by 6.44% to +285. This spike is driven by the announcement that the Bloomberg Commodity Index will include cocoa for the first time in 20 years starting January, potentially leading to $1.9 billion in futures purchases.
Additionally, cocoa exports from Ivory Coast decreased by 16%, with 304,840 MT shipped between October 1 and November 2, compared to 365,072 MT during the same period last year. ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in U.S. ports also fell to a seven-month low of 1,815,627 bags last Friday.
However, global cocoa demand remains weak, with Hershey reporting disappointing Halloween chocolate sales and a notable decline in Q3 cocoa grindings in Asia (down 17%) and Europe (down 4.8%). The International Cocoa Organization indicated a global cocoa deficit of 494,000 MT for the 2023/24 season, the largest in over 60 years, while projecting a surplus for 2024/25.
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