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As of today, December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) has decreased by 11 points (-0.16%) and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) has fallen by 49 points (-1.01%). Cocoa prices are experiencing downward pressure, with London cocoa reaching a 2.5-month low and NY cocoa just above a 10.75-month low due to favorable weather conditions in the Ivory Coast, which bolstered crop forecasts. Mondelez reported that cocoa pod counts in West Africa are 7% above the five-year average, and the harvest is set to begin next month.
Additionally, cocoa inventories monitored by ICE in US ports dropped to a 5-month low of 1,986,491 bags. The Ivory Coast has exported 1.82 million metric tons (MMT) of cocoa this marketing year, a 4.6% increase from last year but a decline from a previous 35% increase reported in December. In Nigeria, cocoa exports fell by 22% year-on-year in July to 13,579 MT, while the forecast for Nigerian cocoa production for the 2025/26 season is projected to decline by 11% to 305,000 MT.
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to 494,000 MT, the largest in over 60 years, while a global surplus of 142,000 MT is projected for the 2024/25 season, marking the first surplus in four years.
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