As of today, July ICE NY cocoa (CCN26) is down 4.61% to $3,998 per metric ton, and July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26) is down 2.44% to $3,015. Cocoa prices have reached 1.5-week lows following a peak on Monday, attributed to an optimistic supply outlook. The Ivory Coast has raised its cocoa delivery estimate for the 2025/26 season to 2.2 million metric tons, up from a previous forecast of 1.8 to 1.9 million metric tons, due to favorable weather conditions.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts an 82% chance of El Niño conditions emerging between May and July, which could negatively impact West African cocoa production. Meanwhile, North American cocoa grindings fell 3.8% year-over-year to 106,087 metric tons in Q1 2023, while European cocoa grindings dropped 7.8% to 325,895 metric tons, the lowest in 17 years.
In Nigeria, cocoa exports decreased 35% year-over-year to 18,052 metric tons in March 2023, with expected production for 2025/26 projected to drop by 11% to 305,000 metric tons. Ghana and the Ivory Coast, which account for over half of the world’s cocoa supply, have both announced significant cuts to the prices they offer to farmers, with Ghana reducing its price by nearly 30% and the Ivory Coast by 57% for the mid-crop harvest.
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