**Cocoa Prices Dip Amid Supply Surge**
On July 10, 2023, cocoa prices saw a decline, with July ICE NY cocoa (CCN26) down by 35 points (-0.90%) and July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26) down by 48 points (-1.62%). This drop follows a retreat from 3.75-month highs due to an optimistic supply outlook, particularly from the Ivory Coast, which has increased its cocoa delivery estimate for the 2025/26 season from 1.8-1.9 MMT to 2.2 MMT.
Current cumulative data indicates that the Ivory Coast has shipped 1.61 MMT of cocoa for the marketing year ending May 17, 2026, representing a 1.9% increase year-over-year. In addition, ICE cocoa inventories reached a 1.75-year high of 2,668,548 bags on May 7, contributing to bearish market sentiment. Furthermore, reports from Nigeria indicate a 35% year-over-year drop in cocoa exports for March, possibly impacting overall cocoa availability.
In contrast, consumer demand in North America has shown some resilience, with leading companies like Hershey and Mondelez International reporting better-than-expected earnings. However, recent data shows a decline in chocolate candy sales in North America, reflecting the mixed outlook for cocoa prices amidst supply and demand fluctuations.
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