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As of today, December arabica coffee prices have risen by 3.26% to $12.80, while January ICE robusta coffee increased by 3.19% to $145. The surge in coffee prices is attributed to below-normal rainfall in Brazil and the forecast of Typhoon Kalmaegi threatening Vietnam’s robusta coffee crops.
In Brazil, the Minas Gerais region recorded only 33.4 mm of rain in the week ending October 31, which is 75% below historical averages. Additionally, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories have dropped to a 19.5-month low of 431,728 bags, affected by a 50% tariff on U.S. imports from Brazil, leading to tighter coffee supplies in the U.S. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s coffee exports for January to September 2025 rose 10.9% year-over-year to 1.230 million metric tons.
The USDA projects that global coffee production will increase by 2.5% year-over-year to a record 178.68 million bags in 2025/26. This includes a 0.5% increase in Brazil’s production to 65 million bags and a projected 6.9% rise in Vietnam’s output to 31 million bags.
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