On Thursday, March arabica coffee (KCH26) closed down -0.25 (-0.08%), while March ICE robusta coffee (RMH26) increased by +61 (+1.62%). Recent data indicated that arabica prices dropped to a 6-month low and robusta prices fell to a 5.75-month low due to signs of strong global coffee supplies.
Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, reported that the country’s coffee production for 2026 is expected to rise by +17.2% year-over-year to 66.2 million bags, with arabica production increasing by +23.2% to 44.1 million bags. Conversely, Brazil’s Trade Ministry noted that January coffee exports decreased by -42.4% year-over-year to 141,000 MT.
In Vietnam, coffee exports for 2025 are projected to grow by +17.5% year-over-year to 1.58 million metric tons, with production reaching a 4-year high of 1.76 million metric tons. The International Coffee Organization also reported a slight decline in global coffee exports for the current marketing year by -0.3% to 138.658 million bags.
