On Friday, September arabica coffee (KCU26) rose by 4.40 cents (+1.42%) and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) increased by 49 cents (+1.32%). This rebound followed a sharp decline the day before, attributed to pre-weekend short-covering after a drop to a new 2.5-week low.
President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on imports from 60 nations caused fluctuations in coffee prices. However, key Brazilian agricultural exports like coffee will not be affected, according to Brazil’s Development Minister Marcio Elias Rosa. The USDA predicts global coffee output for 2026-27 will rise by 6% to a record 189.7 million bags, with arabica production expected to increase by 12% year-on-year, despite concerns over drier conditions in Brazil and potential impacts from an emerging El Niño weather pattern.
Robusta coffee prices remain under pressure with rising inventories, which peaked at a 4-month high of 4,254 lots earlier this week. In contrast, ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 311,317 bags. Additionally, Vietnam’s coffee exports for 2026 increased by 7.3% year-on-year to 1.05 million metric tons, contributing further to the bearish sentiment in the robusta market.
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