On July 20, 2026, September arabica coffee (KCU26) rose by 4.00 cents (+1.29%), while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) increased by 57 cents (+1.54%). This rebound followed a significant drop earlier in the week, attributed to pre-weekend short-covering.
Key market changes include President Trump’s new tariffs, effective immediately, imposing 10% to 12.5% on 60 nations, based on claims of forced labor. However, these tariffs will not impact Brazilian farm products like coffee, as confirmed by Brazil’s Minister of Development, Marcio Elias Rosa.
The USDA predicts a 6% increase in global coffee output for the 2026-27 season, totaling 189.7 million bags, driven mostly by improved conditions in Brazil. This includes a projected 12% rise in arabica production, although robusta production is expected to decrease by 0.7%. Notably, Brazil’s coffee harvest is currently 64% complete, lagging behind the previous year and five-year averages.
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