On Friday, May arabica coffee (KCK26) closed at $2.70, up 0.30 (+0.11%), while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) fell to $36.25, down -29 (-0.80%). Coffee prices have faced pressure recently, with arabica hitting a 15-month low and robusta reaching a 6.25-month low due to expectations of a record Brazilian coffee crop. On February 5, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, projected a 17.2% year-over-year increase in 2026 coffee production to a record 66.2 million bags, with arabica output expected to rise by 23.2% to 44.1 million bags.
In Vietnam, coffee exports surged significantly, with January exports rising by 38.3% year-over-year to 198,000 metric tons. The USDA projected a 2% increase in global coffee production in 2025/26 to a record 178.848 million bags, though arabica production is expected to decline by 4.7% to 95.515 million bags while robusta production is forecasted to grow by 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.
