Coffee prices are experiencing significant increases today, with May arabica coffee (KCK26) up by 3.84% to $11.80 and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) rising by 1.51% to $55. This surge comes as Brazilian coffee farmers withhold supplies, anticipating higher prices, while the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts global shipping and tightens coffee supplies, raising costs for importers and roasters.
ICE robusta inventories fell to a two-month low of 4,257 lots last Friday. In addition, Brazil’s February green coffee exports saw a year-on-year decline of 27%, totaling 2.3 million bags. Current projections indicate Brazil’s coffee production for the 2026/27 season could reach a record 75.3 million bags, contributing to a bearish outlook on coffee prices.
As Vietnam’s coffee exports also rise, increasing by 14% year-on-year in January-February 2026 to 366,000 MT, concerns over future coffee prices persist. The International Coffee Organization recently reported that global coffee exports for the current marketing year have decreased by 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags.
