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December arabica coffee (KCZ25) rose by +9.70 (+2.44%) and January ICE robusta coffee (RMF26) increased by +121 (+2.67%) on October 31, 2023, due to significantly reduced ICE coffee inventories. Arabica inventories dropped to a 1.75-year low of 418,203 bags, while robusta stocks reached a 3.5-month low of 5,926 lots, exacerbated by 50% tariffs on US imports from Brazil, which supply approximately a third of unroasted coffee in the U.S.
Concerns over adverse weather impacting global coffee production are also influencing prices. Brazil’s Minas Gerais, the largest arabica-growing area, received only 33.4 mm of rain last week, 75% below average, while Vietnam’s coffee-growing regions are facing potential damages from heavy rains due to Typhoon Kalmaegi. Despite these challenges, Vietnam’s coffee exports from January to October 2025 rose by +13.4% year-on-year to 1.31 million metric tons.
The International Coffee Organization noted that global coffee exports for the current marketing year increased by +0.2% to 127.92 million bags, indicating sufficient supply despite the lower production estimates from Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, which cut its 2025 arabica forecast by -4.9% to 35.2 million bags.
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