On September 12, arabica coffee (KCU26) surged by 9.93% to $30.75, while robusta coffee (RMU26) increased by 6.76%, up $253. This volatility follows newly raised margin requirements for coffee futures trading by the Intercontinental Exchange, affecting liquidity and prompting commodity funds to close positions.
Brazil’s coffee harvest for the 2026/27 season is currently 52% complete as of July 1, significantly trailing last year’s 60% and the five-year average of 55%, due to adverse weather conditions. The U.S. NOAA predicts a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño,” which could severely impact production with potential floods and droughts in critical coffee-growing regions.
ICE inventories are also contributing to price pressures; arabica stocks have fallen to a 2.25-year low of 354,261 bags, while robusta inventories have risen to a 3.5-month high of 4,183 lots. In contrast, Vietnam’s coffee exports increased by 7.3% year-over-year in the first half of 2026, impacting robusta prices negatively.
5 Stocks Our Experts Predict Could Double In the Next Year
By submitting your email, you'll also get a free pivot & flow membership. A free daily market overview. You can unsubscribe at any time.
