On Tuesday, July arabica coffee (KCN26) closed up by $5.95, or 2.25%, while July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) rose by $39, or 1.18%. This bounce in coffee prices came after a three-week selloff that left prices heavily oversold, prompting technical buying and fund short-covering. ICE robusta inventories decreased to a two-year low of 3,631 lots, and ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.75-month low of 458,735 bags.
Expectations for a larger Brazilian coffee crop are weighing on prices, with projections of a 12% year-over-year increase to 71.4 million bags for the 2026/27 harvest. In contrast, Vietnam’s coffee exports surged 15.8% year-over-year to 810,000 metric tons for 2026, impacting robusta prices negatively. Additionally, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is tightening global coffee supplies by increasing shipping and production costs.
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