On Wednesday, March arabica coffee futures (KCH26) fell by 4.42% to close at $352.50, while March ICE robusta coffee futures (RMH26) dropped 3.04% to $4,148.00. This decline followed a decrease in the Brazilian real from a 20-month high, triggering long liquidation in coffee futures.
Brazil’s coffee exports saw a significant drop, with Cecafe reporting an 18.4% decrease in December, totaling 2.86 million bags. Arabica exports decreased by 10% year-on-year to 2.6 million bags, and robusta exports plummeted by 61% to 222,147 bags. Concurrently, forecasts suggest Brazil’s 2025 coffee production could decline by 3.1% to 63 million bags.
In contrast, Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, is projected to see a 6% increase in 2025/26 production to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons, with exports rising 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Overall, global coffee exports for the current marketing year decreased by 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags.
