On Wednesday, September arabica coffee (KCU25) closed down by $1.55, or 0.54%, while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) fell by $98, or 2.75%. This decline was driven by a decrease in the Brazilian real, which fell to a one-week low against the dollar, prompting increased export sales from Brazilian producers.
Key market influences include a report from Vietnam’s National Statistics Office that indicated a 4.1% year-over-year increase in Vietnam’s coffee exports for Jan-Jun 2025, totaling 943,000 MT. Meanwhile, Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee cooperative reported a 40% completion rate of the coffee harvest as of July 4, compared to 52% at the same time last year. The USDA predicts Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will rise by 0.5% to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is expected to increase by 6.9% to 31 million bags.
Robusta coffee prices have recently experienced pressure due to rising coffee supplies from Vietnam, and the global coffee production forecasts projected a record 178.68 million bags for 2025/26, marking a 2.5% increase. The USDA also anticipates a global arabica coffee deficit of 8.5 million bags for the 2025/26 marketing year.
