On May 30, July arabica coffee closed down 1.05% at a 1-3/4-month low, while July ICE robusta coffee closed down 0.92% at a 7-month low. Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest is 20% complete, just below the five-year average of 21%, adding to downward pressures on prices. Increased production forecasts from Brazil, expected to rise by 0.5% to 65 million bags, and Vietnam, projected to increase by 6.9% to 31 million bags, have raised supply concerns.
ICE-monitored robusta inventories reached 5,438 lots, the highest in over eight months, while arabica inventories hit a four-month high of 892,468 bags. Concurrently, Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell 28% year-over-year to 3.05 million bags. Poor weather conditions in key Brazilian growing areas, such as Minas Gerais, where no rain was recorded through May 31, add uncertainty to future yields.
