On Thursday, December arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed down $7.80 (-2.02%) while November ICE robusta coffee (RMX25) fell $70 (-1.29%). Coffee prices decreased after reaching 3.5-month highs due to long liquidation prompted by JM Smucker Co.’s price hike announcement, raising concerns about reduced consumer demand.
ICE robusta coffee inventories dropped to a 1-month low of 6,552 lots, and ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.25-year low of 714,936 bags. Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported a 20.4% year-on-year decline in July unroasted coffee exports, totaling 161,000 metric tons, attributed to a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports to the U.S. as well as adverse weather conditions impacting the coffee crop.
Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee co-op reported that the harvest was 91.3% complete as of August 22, while Safras & Mercado noted that the overall 2025/26 coffee harvest was 99% complete, surpassing last year’s figures. The USDA estimated world coffee production for 2025/26 to rise by 2.5% year-on-year to 178.68 million bags.
