On Friday, March arabica coffee (KCH26) closed down 14.70 points (-3.95%), while March ICE robusta coffee (RMH26) fell 25 points (-0.64%). Prices dropped sharply due to forecasts of rain in central Brazil that could alleviate dryness concerns and a rally in the dollar index weighing on commodity prices.
Robusta coffee faced additional pressure from a significant increase in Vietnamese exports, which rose 17.5% year-on-year to 1.58 million metric tons for 2025. Meanwhile, Brazil’s total coffee production estimate for the same year was increased by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags, exacerbating concerns about ample global supplies.
ICE arabica inventories saw a decline to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags on November 20 but later rebounded to a 2.5-month high of 461,829 bags. Conversely, ICE robusta inventories reached a 1-year low of 4,012 lots on December 10 before increasing to 4,278 lots over the holidays.
