On April 10, 2023, coffee prices experienced declines with May arabica coffee (KCK26) down 0.50 cents (0.16%) and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) down 22 cents (0.60%). This drop is attributed to long liquidation in coffee futures amidst rising expectations for a diplomatic resolution to US-Iran tensions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which had been impacting coffee supply chains.
Additionally, reports indicate that while arabica coffee reached a seven-week high last Tuesday due to Brazilian farmers withholding supply to drive up prices, ICE robusta inventories fell to a 2.25-month low of 4,211 lots on April 3. Brazil’s coffee production estimates are rising, with StoneX projecting a record 75.3 million bags for the 2026/27 season, up from 70.7 million. Conversely, Brazil’s green coffee exports dropped 27% year-over-year to 2.3 million bags in February 2023.
Global coffee production is set to rise, with Rabobank forecasting a record 180 million bags for the 2026/27 season, and Vietnam’s coffee exports for January-February 2026 showing a 14% year-over-year increase to 366,000 MT. This increase in supply from Vietnam, combined with tightening inventories in other areas, creates a complex landscape for coffee pricing moving forward.
