As of today, May arabica coffee (KCK26) is down 1.52% to $304.70, while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) has decreased 0.19% to $364.00. The decline in coffee prices is attributed to favorable growing conditions in Brazil, with Climatempo reporting beneficial soil moisture and dry conditions aiding cherry ripening. Rain is also anticipated to return to key coffee-growing regions in Brazil this week.
Last Friday, arabica prices reached a 1.5-month high, while robusta hit a 1.5-week high due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has disrupted global shipping and tightened coffee supplies. However, a recent forecast from StoneX predicts Brazil’s coffee production for the 2026/27 season will rise to a record 75.3 million bags, contributing to a bearish outlook for coffee prices.
Supporting this trend, ICE robusta inventories have fallen to a 2-month low of 4,257 lots, while arabica inventories rose to a 5.75-month high of 585,621 bags. February coffee exports from Brazil showed significant declines, with green coffee exports down 27% year-on-year to 2.3 million bags, aligning with global trends revealing a projected increase in worldwide coffee production to 180 million bags for the 2026/27 season.
