On Thursday, March arabica coffee (KCH26) closed down 3.10 cents (-0.83%) while March ICE robusta coffee (RMH26) fell by 11 cents (-0.28%). This decline followed an initial rise in prices due to concerns over below-average rainfall in Brazil, leading to a volatile trading day.
Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, recorded just 47.9 mm of rainfall during the week ending January 2, which is only 67% of the historical average. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s coffee exports for 2025 increased by 17.5% year-on-year to 1.58 million metric tons, further pressuring robusta prices. Additionally, coffee inventories on ICE have shown fluctuation, with arabica inventories declining to a low of 398,645 bags recently before recovering to 461,829 bags.
Looking ahead, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency Conab raised its total coffee production estimate for 2025 by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags. In contrast, Vietnam is projected to see a 6% year-on-year increase in coffee production, reaching a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags). However, the International Coffee Organization reported a 0.3% year-on-year decrease in global coffee exports for the current marketing year.
