On Tuesday, July arabica coffee (KCN26) closed down by 2.15 cents (-0.76%) at a time when the dollar strengthened, while July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) fell by 22 cents (-0.63%). Despite these declines, coffee prices faced limited losses due to ongoing tightness in inventory, with ICE arabica coffee stocks dropping to a 2.5-month low of 471,831 bags and ICE robusta inventories falling to a 2-year low of 3,664 lots.
Globally, coffee supplies have been disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to increased shipping and import costs. Brazilian coffee exports saw a significant decrease, with March figures down 10% year-on-year to 2.65 million bags. Conversely, Vietnam’s coffee exports surged, rising by 15.8% to 810,000 metric tons for January-April 2026, intensifying bearish pressures on robusta prices.
Expectations for Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop are high, with projections estimating a 12% year-on-year increase to 71.4 million bags, and forecasts for a global coffee surplus of 10 million bags, the largest in six years. In contrast, the International Coffee Organization reported a slight year-on-year decline in global coffee exports for the current marketing year, falling by 0.3% to 138.658 million bags.
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