On Friday, July arabica coffee (KCN25) closed down by $1.70 (-0.47%) and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN25) dropped by $153 (-3.33%). The decreases were influenced by harvest pressures in Brazil, where the coffee harvest was reported to be 28% complete as of June 4, slightly above the five-year average of 27%.
Vietnam’s coffee exports surged by 59% year-over-year to 148,000 metric tons in May, contributing to robusta coffee’s decline. On the cumulative scale from January to May, exports decreased by 1.8% year-over-year to 813,000 metric tons. In contrast, Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell by 28% year-over-year to 3.05 million bags, while projections indicate Brazil’s coffee production for 2025/26 will rise by 0.5% to 65 million bags.
ICE-monitored coffee inventories also increased, with robusta inventories rising to 5,438 lots—an 8.5-month high—and arabica inventories reaching 892,468 bags, a four-month high. Demand concerns are placing downward pressure on prices, as major importers like Starbucks and Hershey express worries about tariff impacts on sales volumes.
