March arabica coffee (KCH26) fell by 14.50 cents (-3.95%) to settle at lower prices today, while March ICE robusta coffee (RMH26) dropped by 142 points (-3.32%). This decline came after the Brazilian real fell from a 20-month high, leading to long liquidation in coffee futures.
Brazil’s coffee exports declined significantly, with December shipments down 18.4% year-over-year to 2.86 million bags. Notably, arabica exports fell by 10% to 2.6 million bags, and robusta exports plummeted by 61% to 222,147 bags. In addition, the USDA projects a 3.1% decrease in Brazil’s coffee production for 2025/26 to 63 million bags.
Conversely, coffee supplies from Vietnam are on the rise, with exports expected to increase by 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons by 2025. The nation’s coffee production for the same period is projected to climb 6% to 1.76 million metric tons, a four-year high.
