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On Friday, coffee prices faced downward pressure, with March arabica coffee (KCH26) closing down by 5.65 cents (-1.48%) at $3.76 per pound, and January ICE robusta coffee (RMF26) decreasing by 7 cents (-0.16%) to $4.23 per pound. The decline in arabica was influenced by a weakening Brazilian real, which reached a 7-week low against the dollar, enhancing export activity.
Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, increased its 2025 coffee production estimate by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags, while a delay in the European Union’s deforestation law is expected to maintain ample coffee supplies. The International Coffee Organization reported a 0.3% year-over-year decline in global coffee exports for the current marketing year, totaling 138.658 million bags.
In addition to abundant supplies, shrinking ICE coffee inventories contributed to market dynamics, with arabica inventories recently rising to 426,523 bags after hitting a 1.75-year low. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s coffee exports from January to October increased by 13.4% year-over-year to 1.31 million metric tons, further influencing robusta prices.
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