On Thursday, May arabica coffee (KCK26) closed down by $2.40 (-0.81%), and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) dropped $73 (-2.07%). Prices fell due in part to a stronger dollar and expectations of a record Brazilian coffee crop, projected at 75.9 million bags for the 2026/27 season, a 15.5% increase year-over-year, according to Marex Group Plc.
Additionally, the Strait of Hormuz closure has disrupted global shipping, raising costs for coffee importers and roasters. Brazil’s February coffee exports decreased by 27% year-over-year, totaling 2.3 million bags, while ICE robusta inventories declined to a 3.5-month low of 4,093 lots, contrasting with a 6.25-month high of 585,621 bags for arabica inventories on March 18.
Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, reported a 14% year-over-year rise in coffee exports for January-February 2026, totaling 366,000 MT. Meanwhile, the International Coffee Organization noted a slight decrease in global coffee exports for the current marketing year, down 0.3% year-over-year to 138.658 million bags.
