Coffee prices declined sharply on March 10, 2023, with May arabica coffee (KCK26) closing down 2.31% at a one-week low, while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) fell 4.69% to a contract low. This downturn follows StoneX’s revised estimate for Brazil’s upcoming coffee crop, projecting a record 75.3 million bags for 2026/27, up from their prior estimate of 70.7 million bags. Concurrently, a rally in the dollar index ($DXY) to a 3.5-month high is further pressuring coffee prices.
Notably, Brazil’s coffee exports experienced a significant drop of 17.4% year-over-year in February, totaling 142,000 metric tons, according to the Trade Ministry. Additionally, rising ICE-monitored arabica inventories hit a 5.5-month high of 572,004 bags on the same day.
On a positive note for coffee markets, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global shipping, increasing shipping rates and costs for coffee importers. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s coffee exports surged by 14% in the first two months of 2026 compared to the previous year, with expectations for a record production of 1.76 million metric tons in 2025/26.
