“`html
On Friday, December arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed down 4.20 cents (-1.11%) and November ICE robusta coffee (RMX25) fell 88 cents (-1.93%), marking a one-week low for arabica prices. Coffee prices have been pressured by forecasts of significant rain in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions, specifically Minas Gerais, where up to 30 mm of rain is expected, promoting coffee flowering.
ICE arabica inventories have reached a 1.5-year low at 509,383 bags, while robusta inventories fell to 6,237 lots, a 2.5-month low. The recent decline in prices is also attributed to the Brazilian real’s drop to a 2-month low against the dollar, which encourages coffee exports despite a 50% tariff on U.S. imports from Brazil and shrinking inventories due to reduced exports. Brazil’s coffee export figures reveal a significant drop of 28% in July to 2.7 million bags and a 21% decline for the year-to-date at 22.2 million bags.
Global coffee exports for the current marketing year rose by 0.2% year-on-year to 127.92 million bags, indicating adequate supplies. In contrast, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projected that world coffee production will hit a record 178.68 million bags in 2025/26, although deficits in arabica production are expected to continue.
“`
