December arabica coffee (KCZ26) has dropped by $13.20 (4.10%) to reach a 2.5-week low, while November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) fell by $75 (2.08%) to a 2-month low. The declines are attributed to an easing in supply concerns as Brazil’s coffee harvest progresses, with Cooxupe reporting that 87.5% of the harvest was complete as of August 21, although this is behind last year’s pace of 91.3%.
Robusta coffee is facing pressure with ICE inventories climbing to a 9-month high of 4,943 lots, while arabica inventories fell to a 2.75-year low of 224,617 bags. Market dynamics are also influenced by a recent earthquake in Colombia, which partially restricted coffee exports, although processing facilities were not significantly damaged. Additionally, concerns regarding a potential El Niño weather pattern may negatively affect Brazil’s coffee crop in the upcoming season, amid forecasts for increased global coffee output in the 2026-27 season.
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