On Tuesday, March arabica coffee (KCH26) closed down 8.20 points (2.28%), while January ICE robusta coffee (RMF26) dropped 107 points (2.65%), marking a further decline in coffee prices. Arabica hit a three-week low and robusta reached a four-month low amid increased rainfall in Brazil, which is expected to bolster crop development.
Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its 2025 coffee production estimate by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags, contributing to the bearish outlook on prices. Additionally, Vietnam reported a 39% year-over-year increase in coffee exports for November, totaling 88,000 metric tons, raising concerns over supply levels. Global coffee exports for the current marketing year have fallen by 0.3% to 138.658 million bags, according to the International Coffee Organization.
ICE-monitored arabica inventories declined to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags as of November 20, but rebounded to 426,523 bags by December 5. US coffee purchases from Brazil dropped by 52% year-over-year from August to October 2022 due to high tariffs, which have since eased, but inventories remain tight.
