**Coffee Prices Fall Sharply Amid Record Brazilian Crop Projections**
On March 18, 2023, coffee prices plummeted, with May arabica coffee (KCK26) closing down 3.03% at -9.15 and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) down 4.84% at -174. This decline follows the Marex Group’s projection of a record 2026/27 Brazilian coffee crop of 75.9 million bags, significantly surpassing earlier estimates of 75.4 million bags by Sucafina and 75.3 million bags by StoneX.
The dollar index reached a 10.5-month high, compounding losses for coffee prices. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories fell to a 3.5-month low of 4,109 lots, but below-normal rainfall in Brazil has created some price support. Minas Gerais, the largest arabica-producing region, received only 47% of its historical average rainfall last week, totaling 11.7 mm. Additionally, Brazil’s February coffee exports dropped 27% year-over-year to 2.3 million bags, contributing to the complex factors impacting coffee pricing.
