On July 19, 2023, coffee prices declined, with July arabica coffee (KCN26) down 1.81% to -4.95 and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) down 1.36% to -48. The drop followed a weakening Brazilian real, which fell to a one-week low, prompting coffee producers in Brazil to increase export sales.
Concerns about the El Niño weather pattern potentially disrupting Brazil’s coffee crop in the upcoming year have also influenced prices. The NOAA estimates an 82% probability of El Niño conditions developing between May and July 2023, which could negatively impact the coffee harvest by delaying vital rainfall during the tree flowering period.
Coffee exports from Vietnam, the largest robusta producer, have seen significant increases; exports for 2026 rose by 15.8% year-over-year to 810,000 metric tons, while 2025 exports jumped by 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. In contrast, Brazil’s April coffee exports fell by 1.3% year-over-year to 2.76 million bags.
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