Arabica coffee prices for July (KCN25) fell by 3.31% to a 5-month low, while robusta coffee (RMN25) dropped 6.97% to a 1-year low, driven by improved supply forecasts in Brazil. As of June 11, Brazil’s coffee harvest is 35% complete, matching the 5-year average but slightly below last year’s 37%. Notably, 49% of the robusta and 26% of the arabica harvests are complete, although heavy rains have slowed arabica collection.
Brazil’s coffee exports saw a significant decline, with May green coffee exports falling 36% year-over-year to 2.8 million bags. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts a 0.5% increase in Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production to 65 million bags and a 6.9% rise in Vietnam’s output to 31 million bags. In contrast, drought conditions in Vietnam have led to a 20% reduction in coffee production for the 2023/24 crop year.
Strong underlying support for robusta prices is linked to decreasing inventories, as ICE-monitored stocks fell to a 1-month low of 5,150 lots. Meanwhile, arabica inventories rose to a 4.5-month high at 859,389 bags, suggesting oversupply pressures despite the forecasted global arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags for the 2025/26 marketing year.
