March arabica coffee prices fell by 0.87% to $2.95 per pound, while March robusta coffee dropped 1.17% to $3.81 per pound on February 6, 2023. The decline comes as precipitation in Brazil’s major coffee-growing region, Minas Gerais, has improved crop prospects, with reports showing 72.6 mm of rain, or 113% of the historical average.
Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, projects a record 66.2 million coffee bags for the country in 2026, marking a 17.2% year-on-year increase. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s coffee exports soared 38.3% year-on-year in January to 198,000 metric tons, contributing to bearish sentiments for robusta prices. Colombia’s January coffee production, however, decreased by 34% year-on-year to 893,000 bags, indicating tighter global supplies that may support prices.
As of January 7, ICE coffee inventories for arabica reached 461,829 bags, a 3.25-month high, while robusta inventories stood at 4,662 lots as of January 26. The USDA’s bi-annual report forecasts a 2% global production increase for 2025/26, with a decrease in arabica and an increase in robusta output.
