March arabica coffee (KCH25) Wednesday closed down -13.95 (-4.17%), and January ICE robusta coffee (RMF25) closed down -107 (-2.03%).
Coffee prices retreated Wednesday on concern that prices rose too far and too fast this week. Long liquidation emerged in coffee futures Wednesday after coffee-trader Neuman Gruppe GmbH said Brazil’s 2025/26 arabica crop is likely to be toward 40 million bags, well above Tuesday’s forecast from Volcafe of 34.4 million bags, and said it’s still “too early” to assess the 2025/26 Brazil coffee crop accurately.
Another bearish factor for arabica coffee is an increase in current supplies after ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories on Wednesday climbed to a 2-1/2 year high of 919,388 bags.
On Tuesday, coffee prices rallied sharply, with Mar arabica posting a contract high and the Dec nearest-futures contract (Z24) posting a record high. Also, robusta coffee rose to a 1-week high.
The outlook for a smaller coffee crop in Brazil is sending prices soaring after Volcafe cut its 2025/26 Brazil arabica coffee production estimate to 34.4 million bags, down by about 11 million bags from a September estimate after a crop tour revealed the severity of an extended drought in Brazil. Volcafe also projects a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of 8.5 million bags, wider than the 5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits.
Robusta coffee has support on smaller supplies from Vietnam when the Vietnam General Department of Customs on Wednesday reported that Vietnam Nov coffee exports plunged -47 % y/y to 63,019 MT, and Jan-Nov coffee exports are down -14% y/y at 1.22 MMT. Recent rain in Vietnam flooded coffee fields and delayed the robusta coffee harvest. Vietnam, the world’s biggest robusta producer, is at the start of its coffee harvest. Also, the tightness of current robusta coffee supplies supports prices as ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories fell to a 7-1/2 month low of 3,674 lots last Friday.
Coffee prices are soaring as adverse weather in Brazil and Vietnam, the world’s two biggest coffee growers, threatens global coffee production. According to Sucden Financial, the price surge has also prompted some of Brazil’s coffee exporters to unwind their hedges and buy coffee futures to cover short positions, pushing coffee prices even higher.
The impact of dry El Nino weather earlier this year may lead to longer-term coffee crop damage in South and Central America. Rainfall in Brazil has consistently been below average since April, damaging coffee trees during the all-important flowering stage and reducing the prospects for Brazil’s 2025/26 arabica coffee crop. Brazil has been facing the driest weather since 1981, according to the natural disaster monitoring center Cemaden. Also, Colombia, the world’s second-largest arabica producer, is slowly recovering from the El Nino-spurred drought earlier this year.
Below-average rainfall in Brazil may curb the country’s coffee output and is bullish for prices. Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that rainfall in Brazil’s biggest arabica coffee growing area of Minas Gerais received 60.9 mm of rain last week, or only 91% of the historical average. Minas Gerais is Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-producing area.
Robusta coffee prices are underpinned by reduced robusta production. Due to drought, Vietnam’s coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year dropped by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. The USDA FAS on May 31 projected that Vietnam’s robusta coffee production in the new marketing year of 2024/25 will dip slightly to 27.9 million bags from 28 million bags in the 2023/24 season. Conversely, last Tuesday, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association raised its 2024/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 28 million bags from an October estimate of 27 million bags.
Coffee prices also have carryover support from November 22 when the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projected Brazil’s 2024/25 coffee production at 66.4 MMT, below the USDA’s previous forecast of 69.9 MMT. The USDA’s FAS also projects Brazil’s coffee inventories at 1.2 million bags at the end of the 2024/25 season in June, down -26% y/y.
In a supportive factor for coffee prices, Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, cut its 2024 Brazil coffee production forecast on September 19 to 54.8 million bags from May’s forecast of 58.8 million bags.
Signs of larger global coffee supplies are bearish for prices. Last Thursday, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that Oct global coffee exports for the beginning of the 2024/25 season rose +15.1% y/y to 11.13 mln bags. Global coffee exports for 2023/24 (Oct-Sep) rose +11.7% y/y to 137.27 mln bags.
Brazilian coffee export news has been bearish. Cecafe reported Monday that Brazil’s green coffee exports rose +2.7% y/y to 4.29 million bags. Also, Brazil’s 2023/24 coffee exports rose +33% y/y to a record 47.3 million bags.
In a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) recently projected that 2023/24 global coffee production would climb +5.8% y/y to a record 178 million bags due to an exceptional off-biennial crop year. ICO also said global 2023/24 coffee consumption would climb +2.2% y/y to a record 177 million bags, resulting in a 1 million bag coffee surplus.
The USDA’s bi-annual report on June 20 was bearish for coffee prices. The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2024/25 will increase +4.2% y/y to 176.235 million bags, with a +4.4% increase in arabica production to 99.855 million bags and a +3.9% increase in robusta production to 76.38 million bags. The USDA’s FAS forecasts that 2024/25 ending stocks will climb by +7.7% to 25.78 million bags from 23.93 million bags in 2023/24.
On the date of publication,
Rich Asplund
did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy
here.
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