Arabica coffee prices for July (KCN25) fell by 2.37%, closing down 7.70, while robusta coffee prices (RMN25) dropped by 3.40%, down 137, marking a 13-month low for robusta. This decline follows a week of significant losses in coffee prices, driven by an improved supply outlook as Brazil’s coffee harvest reached 35% completion by June 11, which is in line with the five-year average.
Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee co-op reported that its members’ coffee harvest was 17.8% complete as of June 13. Meanwhile, coffee production forecasts suggest Brazil will see a 0.5% increase year-over-year to 65 million bags in the 2025/26 season, while Vietnam’s production is expected to rise by 6.9% year-over-year to 31 million bags. Recent rainfall in Brazil has alleviated dryness, adding pressure to coffee prices, despite a fall in robusta coffee inventories.
Brazil’s green coffee exports dropped by 36% year-over-year to 2.8 million bags in May, while Vietnam’s coffee production for 2023/24 is projected to decrease by 20% to 1.472 million metric tons, the smallest in four years. The USDA anticipates a coffee production increase globally for 2024/25 to 174.855 million bags, creating a forecasted 8.5 million bag deficit for arabica coffee in 2025/26.
