Coffee prices rose on Tuesday, with July arabica coffee closing up 2.20 cents (+0.76%) and July ICE robusta coffee up 53 cents (+1.55%). This increase is attributed to a decline in coffee inventories, which hit a two-month low of 494,508 bags for ICE arabica coffee, signaling tighter supplies.
Concerns over potential disruptions in global coffee supplies due to a prolonged US-Iran conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz are also influencing prices. Meanwhile, Brazil’s coffee exports saw a significant decrease, with green coffee exports down 10% year-over-year to 2.65 million bags and total March exports down 31% to 151,000 metric tons. In contrast, Vietnam’s coffee exports from January to March increased by 14% year-over-year, reaching 585,000 metric tons.
Robusta coffee was also impacted by a drop in inventories, which fell to a 16-month low of 3,755 lots. According to the USDA, world coffee production for the 2025/26 season is projected to rise by 2% year-over-year to a record 178.848 million bags, despite a predicted decline in Brazilian arabica production.
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