**Coffee Prices Rise Amid Mixed Supply Signals**
On Wednesday, May arabica coffee prices closed up 1.09% at +3.10, while May ICE robusta coffee increased 1.78%, up +29. The surge comes amid supply concerns due to the ongoing conflict in Iran, which has stalled shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, consequently increasing global shipping and import costs.
Conversely, the outlook for coffee supplies appears bearish due to favorable weather in Brazil, which has received beneficial rains, boosting projections for the 2026 coffee crop to a record 66.2 million bags—a 17.2% year-on-year increase. Moreover, Vietnam’s coffee exports surged 38.3% year-on-year in January, adding further pressure on robusta prices.
While ICE arabica inventories have increased to a 4.75-month high of 528,028 bags, concerns over declining production in Colombia—down 34% year-on-year to 893,000 bags in January—provide some support for prices. The contrasting factors highlight the volatility in the coffee market, influenced by both global production dynamics and geopolitical events.
