On Monday, May arabica coffee (KCK26) closed up by 3.85 cents (+1.37%) and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) increased by 148 cents (+4.08%). Supply concerns driven by the ongoing war in Iran have disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, raising global shipping rates and costs for coffee importers.
Despite the gains in coffee prices, beneficial rains in Brazil’s Minas Gerais area, which received 78 mm of rain (131% of the historical average) for the week ending February 20, have improved the outlook for the country’s coffee crop. Brazil’s 2026 coffee production is anticipated to reach a record 66.2 million bags, a 17.2% increase year-over-year, according to Conab’s forecast.
In contrast, coffee exports from Vietnam saw a significant surge, with January exports rising 38.3% year-over-year to 198,000 MT, contributing to bearish pressures on robusta prices. The ICE reported healthy recovery in arabica inventories, reaching a 4.75-month high of 510,151 bags, while robusta inventories also saw increases. Additionally, Colombia’s coffee production fell by 34% year-over-year to 893,000 bags, offering some support to prices.
