On Tuesday, May arabica coffee (KCK26) closed up by +1.90 (+0.65%), while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) rose by +52 (+1.50%). Coffee prices have increased for a second consecutive day, reaching a one-week high, primarily due to supply concerns stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has disrupted global shipping and raised costs for coffee importers.
Brazil’s coffee production outlook remains a significant factor influencing market dynamics. StoneX raised its Brazil 2026/27 coffee production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from 70.7 million. Concurrently, Brazil’s February green coffee exports fell by 27% year-over-year to 2.3 million bags, while ICE-monitored arabica inventories reached a 5.5-month high of 581,830 bags as of Monday.
Vietnam also impacted market trends, reporting a 14% increase in January-February coffee exports to 366,000 MT. As a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization noted a 0.3% decline in global coffee exports for the current marketing year, estimated at 138.658 million bags.
