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On September 19, ICE arabica coffee (KCZ25) closed at 371.45 cents per pound, up +2.65 (+0.71%), while robusta coffee (RMX25) rose +14 (+0.33%). Coffee prices gained due to tightening inventories in ICE, with arabica stocks dropping to a 1.5-year low of 571,754 bags and robusta inventories at a 2-month low of 6,464 lots, attributed in part to a 50% tariff on U.S. imports from Brazil.
Concerns over the Vietnamese coffee crop, exacerbated by heavy rains from Typhoon Bualoi, also supported prices. Furthermore, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projected a 2.5% rise in global coffee production for 2025/26 to a record 178.68 million bags, despite an expected decline in arabica production. Brazil’s 2025 arabica output was cut by Conab by 4.9% to 35.2 million bags.
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